February 15, 2026 Juba
By Paulino Minyiel
The Horn of Africa stands at a critical moment. Sudan’s devastating conflict, Ethiopia’s political strains, Somalia’s persistent insecurity, and South Sudan’s delicate transition are collectively shaping a volatile regional landscape. These crises are no longer isolated events; they are interconnected threats that demand coordinated regional leadership. The outcomes of the African Union (AU) Summit #39 and the commitments of the AU High‑Level Ad Hoc Committee on South Sudan (C5) offer a crucial roadmap that the region must treat with urgency—not symbolic acknowledgment.
A Continental Agenda That Requires Delivery
AU Summit #39 set out an ambitious agenda prioritizing peace and security cooperation, governance reforms, economic integration through AfCFTA, and improved water and sanitation systems. These are not mere development objectives—they are structural pillars required to prevent further destabilization across the region.
For years, the Horn has struggled with the gap between continental commitments and actual implementation. The Summit’s emphasis on accountability and follow‑through should serve as a clear signal: Africa’s stability depends on turning policy into action.
South Sudan: A Regional Test with Far‑Reaching Consequences
South Sudan remains a central determinant of regional stability. Its internal conflict has historically spilled across borders, generating displacement, disrupting trade, and heightening security tensions. The C5 agenda—anchored in the Revitalised Peace Agreement (R‑ARCSS)—calls for credible progress toward a sustained ceasefire, political inclusivity, and transparent preparations for the 2026 elections.
If these commitments falter, the consequences will be felt across East Africa. If they are upheld, the region gains a vital anchor for long‑term stability.
A Moment for Collective Resolve
The alignment between AU Summit priorities and the C5 roadmap presents a rare opportunity for coordinated regional progress. Together, they provide a structured path to strengthening cross‑border security, enhancing humanitarian responses, advancing regional trade, and reinforcing governance systems.
Such alignment should not be wasted. The Horn of Africa cannot afford hesitation or fragmented responses. What is needed is disciplined implementation and political unity.
The AU Summit #39 and C5 agenda offer the clearest path in years toward a more stable and prosperous Horn of Africa. The frameworks exist. The vision is clear. What remains is the will of regional leaders to act decisively and without delay. The stakes could not be higher—and the opportunity may not come again soon.
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